Final Call on Senate Midterms

Here is the final call. Expect surprises! Turnout looks very good! So good we carry Kentucky? Well, that's my dream, but a dream it will likely remain. So here is where I am:

Democrats carry:
NC +4
NH +3
KS +2
AK +5
IA + 1

Republican carry:
AR +6
KY +5
CO +1

Run-offs:
GA- a dead heat, even +/-1
LA- Landrieu by 5 in primary

I have highest confidence in NC, NH and the two races going to run-off. I have low confidence in IA and CO, and those could be backwards, they will be close. The key is for Dems to hold one of those critical two. I still have a hunch that KY will be closer than expected and that Grimes voters are fired up, and McConnell's cant be paid to vote last I checked. It will be an interesting night, and with any luck a stunner!

10 Toss-Ups and Reasons All 10 Can Go Blue!

10 Toss-ups and Reasons All 10 Can Go Blue!

2014 is turning into a remarkable year for Senate Midterm elections. 10 toss-ups! Can you believe it? This is all despite weak  job approval for President Obama, who nearly every Democratic candidate  has tried to run away from. We have been hearing an unrelenting narrative from the media that a Republican wave is coming! But, where is it? Voters are angry, very angry, but it isn’t just President Obama that they are venting on, it is the political system as a whole. It’s not like people are even remotely happy with Congress, and voters do not suffer a lack of memory. It was Government shutdowns and obstruction that many democrats remember, and the recent attack on voting rights is driving turnout up, not down.

You might as well start calling me a pie eyed, rose colored glasses wearing  liberal right now, as I will now tell you how Democrats can hold the senate and win as many as 55 seats, and give reasons for hope on a state by state basis.

Before I go by state, three points on the national overview:

1-      Polling has shortchanged Democratic candidates on a regular basis. Remember 2012? That was supposed to be a nail biter! We were fed that narrative all summer and fall, but, as it turns out, we didn’t even have to stay up to all hours of the night to find out that Obama won by a comfortable margin. Many argue that poll bias tilts back and forth, but I don’t see that, I see poll averages being pushed to the right with an abundance of right leaning polls (Fox, Rasmussen, ARG), but not a big bias the other way. PPP, for instance is said to be left leaning, but look at their results, they have been as spot on as anyone. In key states poll bias can range from 2-4 points.

2-      Turnout machine. The Dems have it, they have spent big on it, and they continue to refine it. Democrats have outspent Republicans on GOTV operations across the board.

3-      Enthusiasm? Another familiar narrative pushed by the media this cycle is that the Republicans have more energy and they are more likely to vote. But look at North Carolina, and in virtually every battleground state-  it is the opposite. Early numbers are showing above average turnout, a higher share of African American voters, and an impressive number of non-2010 voters voting this cycle. The ground game the Dems have banked on appears to be working!

The States

Kansas- Who even thought this would be in the conversation? That, in itself should be an indication that this is not a “wave election”. The Governor has run the state into the ground. The Republican Economic experiment has yielded results, and the results are a complete disaster. Independent Greg Orman has lead by as many as 10 points, and now it is neck and neck. Kansans are so motivated to throw the bums out, it might just be too much for unpopular Republican incumbent Roberts to overcome. For sake of argument, since Orman was a Democrat and has a record as such, we'll count him as light blue.
Georgia- Nunn is also in a toss-up battle with a little bit of momentum. Georgia has one of the worst unemployment rates in the nation, and the Rep Senate candidate, Perdue is on record as an outsourcing master. One other huge factor- if African American voters turn out like they are right now in NC, Nunn might just get to 50% without the need for a run-off.
New Hampshire- ok, easy one. I know the polls are somewhat tight, but there is no way NH is voting for a carpetbagging fear monger. I’d bet a six pack on this one, and would probably even give you a couple points to even it out. The last 3 polls show her up 8, up 7, and a tie. She appears to be pulling away, and I think we are looking at a 5 point win.

North Carolina- Not only has Hagan kept a completely solid yet slim lead for months in this state, turnout is heavy, a larger percentage of AA voters have come out this year than 2010 and this is just what she needs. The “unenthusiastic democrats” are coming out in droves! Winner!

Iowa- Polls have been up and down all cycle, and for the past couple of months they have favored Republican pig castrator Joni Ernst. But, polls have tightened and it is a true toss-up yet again. Interesting factoid- Q poll out the other day has Ernst up 4, but among those that have voted, Democrat Braley is up by 21! Ernst also skipped all the major editorial board meetings to avoid a “gotcha moment.” Iowans don’t like people that hide and they actually read the papers there. My gut says Braley squeaks it out.

Colorado- This is a state I was about to write off a few weeks ago, but polls have been bouncing recently between a draw, or a solid Republican victory. Fortunately, Colorado is notorious for poor polling and undercounting Democrats. Early vote suggests three things- Republicans are up, old people vote early, and Denver is slow to count. The later two give us plenty of room for hope.

Arkansas- In my gut this is still a longshot. Polls were tightening before little known “Arkansas Poll” came out with a 13 point gap, preceded by a right leaning Rasmussen lead of 7. Here is the one thing that throws me about this race though- Pryor was even or ahead from April until August, and the polls only flipped to Cotton when screening for LV started at the end of August. The CNN poll, for instance (ended 9/2) showed Pryor with a 9 point advantage among RV, but swung 11 points to Cotton +2 on the LV screen. The argument the media has been feeding us all along is that the Dems are “unenthusiastic”, less likely to vote and that ends up in their screen. Meanwhile, early voting tells us the opposite. Pulaski County (that voted 87% for Obama) for example, is having record turnout, and that seems to be the trend in the state. The Dems also claim to have registered 100,000 new voters since the last cycle. Minimum wage is also on the ballot boosting Dems hopes. While winning AR would be a stunner, stranger things have happened.

Alaska- In a state with such a small population over such a vast expanse of land, polling is very difficult. There are two polls however, in the last week, that show Incumbent Dem Begich up by 6 and 10 points. The challenger is also embroiled in a sexual harassment scandal and the Dems have invested in the ground game there. Min wage and weed are on the ballot as a possible bonus. Don’t be surprised when this state goes Blue!

Louisiana- Ah, Louisiana! The conventional thinking is that Landreiu wins the primary and loses the runoff. But, can you easily right off Mary Landrieu who seems to come out ahead in any battle? No. She will win the primary without enough to win outright. But, everyone loves a winner, and the runoff will be a whole new ballgame. If my current theory that the MSM is dead wrong about Democratic turnout, we are in the game. Oh, and speaking of games, the runoff is scheduled for the same day as the SEC Championship game. LSU would need an improbable run to get there, but if they do, tens of thousands of affluent Louisians will be in Atlanta for the game.

Kentucky- Well, outside of one poll, this race appears to be in the margin of error otherwise. Incumbent Rep Mitch McConnell is suffering a lack of enthusiasm. It has gotten so desperate that he lent his campaign $1.8Mil to finance things like paying people to show up to his rallies and run ads with fake supporters. Mitch has faultered on Obamacare and privatizing social security of late, and you know the Dems would love nothing else but rid the senate of this obstructor in chief. It can happen!

So folks, there you have it- many, many paths to victory. Sure, it would be a miracle to win all 10, but we only need 5, and if you have NC and NH in the bag for the Dems like I do, we only need 3 of the remaining 7. I believe  we will get there, and the paths are many.

Thursday Afternoon Links

Clinton Campaign Turmoil (WSJ Online)
Romney To Endorse McCain (NY Times)
Obama's Lead Causes Shift In Campaign (NY Times)
Clinton Intensifies Attack (LA Times)
Condo Bans Smoking In Your Own Home (Star Tribune-MN)

Welcome To A. Fine Politics

A. Fine Politics is my second blog. The original, A. Fine Blog (afineblog.com), is dedicated to New York City Real Estate and general happenings in the city of New York. Since I have such a strong interest in politics, and spend a fair amount of time on the internet following politics, a blog dedicated to the subject was the next logical step. Initially, the focus will primarily focus on the ongoing presidential contest, however, I do plan to tackle various issues which are swirling around Washington.
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